Vegas Line
Auburn -6.5
Total 58.5
Model Projection
AUB -5.0
AUB 68.3% win · O/U 58.5
Value Edge
1.5 pt edge: BAY
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +3.3 pts toward AUB on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- AUB -1.7
- AUB: 13 portal additions / 13 departures, first year under Alex Golesh — 2021–2025 archive weighted 15%, incoming portal talent −2.5 pts.
- BAY: 4 portal additions / 6 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 68%, incoming portal talent −1.4 pts.
Baylor — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Auburn ranks #122 nationally allowing 333.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #63 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Baylor converts 31.8% of third downs (#108 nationally) versus Auburn's 55.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Baylor is +1 in turnover margin (3 forced, 2 lost) across 1 recorded games; Auburn sits at -1.
4Clear 30 points
The market total for this game is 58.5. Anything above 30 points puts Baylor on the winning side of an even split.
Auburn — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Baylor ranks #105 nationally allowing 259.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #78 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Auburn converts 55.6% of third downs (#31 nationally) versus Baylor's 31.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Auburn is -1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Baylor sits at +1.
4Clear 30 points
The market total for this game is 58.5. Anything above 30 points puts Auburn on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
AUB by 5.0
Baseline AUB -5.0
Simulated Total
58.5
Baseline 58.5
Unit Edge
AUB QB
AUB Above average · BAY FBS average
BAY passing vs AUB coverage
| 333.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 333.0 |
| 50.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.2 |
| 6.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 50.0% |
| 2.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 1.9% |
| 0.309 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.309 |
BAY rushing vs AUB run defense
| 103.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 103.0 |
| 2.3 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.3 |
| 2.1 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 23.3% |
| 23.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 8 |
| -0.257 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.257 |
AUB passing vs BAY coverage
| 259.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 259.0 |
| 7.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 74.3% |
| 74.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 7.4 |
| 14.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.108 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.108 |
Efficiency & situational
| 31.8% | Third-down conversion | 55.6% |
| 436.0 | Total yards / game | 389.0 |
| 389.0 | Yards allowed / game | 436.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.