Week 1 · Final
3 – 56
Vegas Line
Ohio State -49.5
Total 55.5
Model Projection
OSU -46.0
OSU 99.9% win · O/U 55.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: BALL
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +8.7 pts toward OSU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- OSU -14.9
- OSU: 10 portal additions / 10 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 36%, incoming portal talent +0.9 pts.
Ball State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Ohio State ranks #37 nationally allowing 120.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #18 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Ball State converts 21.4% of third downs (#122 nationally) versus Ohio State's 45.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Ball State is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Ohio State sits at +0.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Ball State on the winning side of an even split.
Ohio State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Ball State ranks #137 nationally allowing 434.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #123 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Ohio State converts 45.5% of third downs (#62 nationally) versus Ball State's 21.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Ohio State is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Ball State sits at +0.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 55.5. Anything above 28 points puts Ohio State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
OSU by 46.0
Baseline OSU -46.0
Simulated Total
55.5
Baseline 55.5
Unit Edge
OSU QB
OSU Top 25 level · BALL Below average
BALL passing vs OSU coverage
| 120.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 120.0 |
| 54.1% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 3.2 |
| 3.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 54.1% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 2.7% |
| -0.265 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.265 |
BALL rushing vs OSU run defense
| 45.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 45.0 |
| 2.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.0 |
| 2.2 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 16.7% |
| 16.7% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| -0.110 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.110 |
OSU passing vs BALL coverage
| 434.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 434.0 |
| 11.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 83.8% |
| 83.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.7 |
| 5.4% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| 0.861 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.861 |
Efficiency & situational
| 21.4% | Third-down conversion | 45.5% |
| 165.0 | Total yards / game | 671.0 |
| 671.0 | Yards allowed / game | 165.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.