Week 3 · Scheduled
VS
Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
LIB -12.0
LIB 86.7% win · O/U 52.1
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.3 pts toward BALL on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- LIB -8.5
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Ball State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Liberty ranks #108 nationally allowing 173.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #33 pass defense.
2Contain Kam Davis
Liberty's top producer this season: 51 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Ball State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Ball State converts 21.4% of third downs (#122 nationally) versus Liberty's 43.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Ball State is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Liberty sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
Ball State averages 165.0 total yards per game (#131 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Liberty — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Ball State ranks #137 nationally allowing 434.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #123 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Liberty converts 43.8% of third downs (#66 nationally) versus Ball State's 21.4%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Liberty is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Ball State sits at +0.
4Move the ball efficiently
Liberty averages 321.0 total yards per game (#106 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Deshawn PurdieLIB · QB
- Passing Yds
- 230
- Completion %
- 63.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.5
- TD : INT
- 1 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 146.7
Leading Rusher
Kam DavisLIB · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 51
- Carries
- 16
- Yards / Carry
- 3.2
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 8
Primary Receiver
Makai JacksonLIB · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 73
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 24.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 34
Defensive Leader
Derrell FarrarLIB · LB
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
LIB by 12.2
Baseline LIB -12.0
Simulated Total
52.1
Baseline 52.1
Unit Edge
LIB QB
LIB FBS average · BALL Below average
BALL passing vs LIB coverage
| 120.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 118.0 |
| 54.1% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.6 |
| 3.2 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 66.7% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 0.0% |
| -0.265 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.392 |
BALL rushing vs LIB run defense
| 45.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 173.0 |
| 2.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 5.6 |
| 2.2 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 22.6% |
| 16.7% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| -0.110 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.211 |
LIB passing vs BALL coverage
| 434.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 230.0 |
| 11.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 63.0% |
| 83.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.5 |
| 5.4% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.861 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.244 |
Efficiency & situational
| 21.4% | Third-down conversion | 43.8% |
| 165.0 | Total yards / game | 321.0 |
| 671.0 | Yards allowed / game | 291.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.