Vegas Line
Vanderbilt -28.5
Total 57.5
Model Projection
VAN -25.0
VAN 97.9% win · O/U 57.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: APSU
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- VAN -8.9
- VAN: 4 portal additions / 1 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 84%, incoming portal talent +1.6 pts.
Austin Peay — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Vanderbilt ranks #33 nationally allowing 62.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #32 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Austin Peay is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Vanderbilt sits at +0.
3Clear 29 points
The market total for this game is 57.5. Anything above 29 points puts Austin Peay on the winning side of an even split.
Vanderbilt — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Vanderbilt is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Austin Peay sits at +0.
2Clear 29 points
The market total for this game is 57.5. Anything above 29 points puts Vanderbilt on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
VAN by 25.0
Baseline VAN -25.0
Simulated Total
57.5
Baseline 57.5
Unit Edge
VAN QB
VAN FBS average · APSU Below average
APSU passing vs VAN coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 116.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 57.1% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 23.8% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.051 |
APSU rushing vs VAN run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 62.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.5 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 21.1% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.209 |
VAN passing vs APSU coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 209.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 72.0% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.4 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.341 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 33.3% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 396.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 178.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.