Vegas Line
Utah -12.5
Total 54.5
Model Projection
UTAH -9.0
UTAH 80.0% win · O/U 54.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: ARK
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +3.5 pts toward UTAH on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- ARK -2.4
- UTAH: 3 portal additions / 6 departures, first year under Morgan Scalley — 2021–2025 archive weighted 41%, incoming portal talent −2.7 pts.
- ARK: 8 portal additions / 3 departures, first year under Ryan Silverfield — 2021–2025 archive weighted 35%, incoming portal talent +2.3 pts.
Arkansas — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Utah ranks #66 nationally allowing 106.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #36 pass defense.
2Contain LaMarcus Bell
Utah's top producer this season: 87 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Arkansas has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Arkansas converts 58.8% of third downs (#23 nationally) versus Utah's 66.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Arkansas is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; Utah sits at +2.
5Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Arkansas on the winning side of an even split.
Utah — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Arkansas ranks #30 nationally allowing 113.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #15 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Utah converts 66.7% of third downs (#13 nationally) versus Arkansas's 58.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Utah is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Arkansas sits at -2.
4Clear 28 points
The market total for this game is 54.5. Anything above 28 points puts Utah on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Devon DampierUTAH · QB
- Passing Yds
- 176
- Completion %
- 72.2%
- Yards / Attempt
- 9.8
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 209.4
Leading Rusher
LaMarcus BellUTAH · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 87
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 12.4
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 34
Primary Receiver
Braden PeganUTAH · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 81
- Receptions
- 4
- Yards / Catch
- 20.3
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 31
Defensive Leader
Jackson BenneeUTAH · S
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 4
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
UTAH by 9.0
Baseline UTAH -9.0
Simulated Total
54.5
Baseline 54.5
Unit Edge
UTAH QB
UTAH Above average · ARK Above average
ARK passing vs UTAH coverage
| 267.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 119.0 |
| 68.6% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.0 |
| 7.6 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 36.7% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.3% |
| 0.573 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.009 |
ARK rushing vs UTAH run defense
| 148.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 106.0 |
| 3.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.4 |
| 2.6 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 26.7% |
| 21.7% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| -0.068 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.312 |
UTAH passing vs ARK coverage
| 113.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 269.0 |
| 4.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 65.4% |
| 50.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.3 |
| 8.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 5.00:1 |
| -0.071 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.703 |
Efficiency & situational
| 58.8% | Third-down conversion | 66.7% |
| 415.0 | Total yards / game | 633.0 |
| 153.0 | Yards allowed / game | 225.0 |
| -2 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.