Week 1 · Final
24 – 42
Vegas Line
Memphis -10.5
Total 52.5
Model Projection
MEM -10.5
MEM 83.6% win · O/U 52.5
Value Edge
Model agrees with market
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.9 pts toward ARST on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- MEM -7.5
- MEM: 1 portal additions / 1 departures, first year under Charles Huff — 2021–2025 archive weighted 64%, incoming portal talent 0.0 pts.
Arkansas State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Memphis ranks #119 nationally allowing 308.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #85 run defense.
2Contain Jaylin Carter
Memphis's top producer this season: 280 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Arkansas State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Arkansas State converts 50.0% of third downs (#45 nationally) versus Memphis's 40.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Arkansas State is -2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; Memphis sits at +1.
5Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 52.5. Anything above 27 points puts Arkansas State on the winning side of an even split.
Memphis — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Arkansas State ranks #137 nationally allowing 335.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #70 pass defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Memphis converts 40.0% of third downs (#82 nationally) versus Arkansas State's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Memphis is +1 in turnover margin (4 forced, 3 lost) across 2 recorded games; Arkansas State sits at -2.
4Clear 27 points
The market total for this game is 52.5. Anything above 27 points puts Memphis on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Marcus StokesMEM · QB
- Passing Yds
- 411
- Completion %
- 65.9%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.0
- TD : INT
- 4 : 2
- TD/INT Ratio
- 2.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 172.5
Leading Rusher
Jaylin CarterMEM · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 280
- Carries
- 34
- Yards / Carry
- 8.2
- Rushing TD
- 5
- Long
- 74
Primary Receiver
Braylon BurnsideMEM · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 74
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 37.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 48
Defensive Leader
Zach RuffinMEM · LB
- Tackles
- 18
- Solo
- 13
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.5
- INT
- 1
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MEM by 10.6
Baseline MEM -10.5
Simulated Total
52.5
Baseline 52.5
Unit Edge
MEM QB
MEM FBS average · ARST FBS average
ARST passing vs MEM coverage
| 325.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 308.0 |
| 70.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.1 |
| 10.8 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 67.6% |
| 0.25:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 13.2% |
| 0.215 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.133 |
ARST rushing vs MEM run defense
| 109.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 139.0 |
| 3.8 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.0 |
| 3.2 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 15.0% |
| 11.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 16 |
| 0.209 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.200 |
MEM passing vs ARST coverage
| 188.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 205.5 |
| 12.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 65.9% |
| 80.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.0 |
| 6.7% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| 1.159 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.684 |
Efficiency & situational
| 50.0% | Third-down conversion | 40.0% |
| 434.0 | Total yards / game | 470.5 |
| 523.0 | Yards allowed / game | 447.0 |
| -2 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.