Vegas Line
Missouri -55.5
Total 62.5
Model Projection
MIZ -52.0
MIZ 100.0% win · O/U 62.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: UAPB
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- MIZ -13.8
- MIZ: 11 portal additions / 6 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 46%, incoming portal talent +2.5 pts.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Missouri ranks #50 nationally allowing 89.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #27 pass defense.
2Protect the turnover edge
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Missouri sits at -1.
3Clear 32 points
The market total for this game is 62.5. Anything above 32 points puts Arkansas-Pine Bluff on the winning side of an even split.
Missouri — Keys to Victory
1Fix the turnover margin
Missouri is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Arkansas-Pine Bluff sits at +0.
2Clear 32 points
The market total for this game is 62.5. Anything above 32 points puts Missouri on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
MIZ by 52.0
Baseline MIZ -52.0
Simulated Total
62.5
Baseline 62.5
Unit Edge
MIZ QB
MIZ Above average · UAPB Below average
UAPB passing vs MIZ coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 109.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.5 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 45.8% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 4.2% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.421 |
UAPB rushing vs MIZ run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 89.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.1 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 30.8% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.061 |
MIZ passing vs UAPB coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 357.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 78.8% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.8 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.928 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 60.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 562.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 198.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | -1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.