Vegas Line
BYU -7.5
Total 47.5
Model Projection
BYU -6.0
BYU 71.9% win · O/U 47.5
Value Edge
1.4 pt edge: ARIZ
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +1.5 pts toward BYU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- BYU -2.1
- BYU: 3 portal additions / 0 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 90%, incoming portal talent +2.6 pts.
- ARIZ: 4 portal additions / 0 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 87%, incoming portal talent +2.3 pts.
Arizona — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
BYU ranks #46 nationally allowing 135.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #21 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Arizona converts 58.3% of third downs (#24 nationally) versus BYU's 81.8%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Arizona is -2 in turnover margin (1 forced, 3 lost) across 1 recorded games; BYU sits at +4.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts Arizona on the winning side of an even split.
BYU — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Arizona ranks #78 nationally allowing 200.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #1 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
BYU converts 81.8% of third downs (#2 nationally) versus Arizona's 58.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
BYU is +4 in turnover margin (4 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Arizona sits at -2.
4Clear 24 points
The market total for this game is 47.5. Anything above 24 points puts BYU on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Leading Rusher
Primary Receiver
Defensive Leader
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
BYU by 6.1
Baseline BYU -6.0
Simulated Total
47.5
Baseline 47.5
Unit Edge
BYU QB
BYU FBS average · ARIZ FBS average
ARIZ passing vs BYU coverage
| 314.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 135.0 |
| 73.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.4 |
| 8.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 48.4% |
| 2.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.2% |
| 0.202 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.277 |
ARIZ rushing vs BYU run defense
| 206.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 49.0 |
| 5.9 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.0 |
| 4.8 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 44.4% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.321 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.265 |
BYU passing vs ARIZ coverage
| 200.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 213.0 |
| 6.5 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 77.3% |
| 61.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 9.7 |
| 16.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| -0.021 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.599 |
Efficiency & situational
| 58.3% | Third-down conversion | 81.8% |
| 520.0 | Total yards / game | 521.0 |
| 193.0 | Yards allowed / game | 184.0 |
| -2 | Turnover margin | +4 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.