Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
ASU -0.5
ASU 52.3% win · O/U 62.7
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Shifted by +0.5 pts toward KU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- ASU -1.1
- KU: 3 portal additions / 0 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 90%, incoming portal talent +1.4 pts.
- ASU: 6 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 75%, incoming portal talent +2.6 pts.
Arizona State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Kansas ranks #28 nationally allowing 111.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #11 run defense.
2Contain Yasin Willis
Kansas's top producer this season: 72 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Arizona State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Arizona State converts 50.0% of third downs (#44 nationally) versus Kansas's 61.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Arizona State is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Kansas sits at +0.
5Move the ball efficiently
Arizona State averages 681.0 total yards per game (#2 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Kansas — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Arizona State ranks #62 nationally allowing 102.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #12 pass defense.
2Contain Kyson Brown
Arizona State's top producer this season: 80 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Kansas has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Kansas converts 61.5% of third downs (#19 nationally) versus Arizona State's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Kansas is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Arizona State sits at -1.
5Move the ball efficiently
Kansas averages 613.0 total yards per game (#16 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Cutter BoleyASU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 387
- Completion %
- 77.8%
- Yards / Attempt
- 14.3
- TD : INT
- 6 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 271.5
Isaiah MarshallKU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 246
- Completion %
- 73.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 12.9
- TD : INT
- 2 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 217.2
Leading Rusher
Kyson BrownASU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 80
- Carries
- 6
- Yards / Carry
- 13.3
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 46
Yasin WillisKU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 72
- Carries
- 11
- Yards / Carry
- 6.5
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 20
Primary Receiver
Reed HarrisASU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 137
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 22.8
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 36
Nik McMillanKU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 130
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 21.7
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 46
Defensive Leader
Ben Alefaio-LiliiASU · S
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Quincy DavisKU · LB
- Tackles
- 5
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ASU by 0.6
Baseline ASU -0.5
Simulated Total
62.7
Baseline 62.7
Unit Edge
ASU QB
KU Above average · ASU Above average
ASU passing vs KU coverage
| 432.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 111.0 |
| 72.2% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 5.5 |
| 12.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 50.0% |
| 6.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 15.0% |
| 1.125 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.034 |
ASU rushing vs KU run defense
| 249.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 35.0 |
| 7.1 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.1 |
| 3.7 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 61.5% |
| 17.6% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 11 |
| 0.533 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.503 |
KU passing vs ASU coverage
| 86.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 336.0 |
| 3.6 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 72.0% |
| 45.8% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 13.4 |
| 8.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 2.00:1 |
| -0.133 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 1.006 |
Efficiency & situational
| 50.0% | Third-down conversion | 61.5% |
| 681.0 | Total yards / game | 613.0 |
| 188.0 | Yards allowed / game | 146.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.