Week 2 · Final
27 – 24
Vegas Line
East Carolina -7
Total 56.5
Model Projection
ECU -3.5
ECU 63.1% win · O/U 56.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: APP
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +2.8 pts toward APP on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- ECU -1.3
- ECU: 1 portal additions / 7 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 75%, incoming portal talent −3.8 pts.
App State — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
East Carolina ranks #120 nationally allowing 227.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #106 pass defense.
2Contain Ashton Gray
East Carolina's top producer this season: 17 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing App State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
App State converts 28.6% of third downs (#114 nationally) versus East Carolina's 0.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
App State is +1 in turnover margin (2 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; East Carolina sits at +0.
5Clear 29 points
The market total for this game is 56.5. Anything above 29 points puts App State on the winning side of an even split.
East Carolina — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
App State ranks #76 nationally allowing 198.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #25 run defense.
2Contain Jaquari Lewis
App State's top producer this season: 69 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing East Carolina has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
East Carolina converts 0.0% of third downs (#136 nationally) versus App State's 28.6%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
East Carolina is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; App State sits at +1.
5Clear 29 points
The market total for this game is 56.5. Anything above 29 points puts East Carolina on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Malachi SingletonAPP · QB
- Passing Yds
- 291
- Completion %
- 91.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 12.1
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 234.8
Mitch GriffisECU · QB
- Passing Yds
- 137
- Completion %
- 62.5%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.6
- TD : INT
- 1 : 1
- TD/INT Ratio
- 1.00:1
- Passer Rating
- 142.6
Leading Rusher
Jaquari LewisAPP · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 69
- Carries
- 11
- Yards / Carry
- 6.3
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 12
Ashton GrayECU · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 17
- Carries
- 6
- Yards / Carry
- 2.8
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 9
Primary Receiver
Sam Pickett IIIAPP · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 76
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 15.2
- Receiving TD
- 2
- Long
- 23
Tyler JohnsonECU · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 68
- Receptions
- 1
- Yards / Catch
- 68.0
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 68
Defensive Leader
Alex MitchellAPP · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 5
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Crews LawECU · LB
- Tackles
- 6
- Solo
- 1
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 1.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ECU by 3.5
Baseline ECU -3.5
Simulated Total
56.5
Baseline 56.5
Unit Edge
APP QB
ECU FBS average · APP FBS average
APP passing vs ECU coverage
| 348.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 260.0 |
| 87.9% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 8.1 |
| 10.5 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 59.4% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 3.1% |
| 0.911 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.299 |
APP rushing vs ECU run defense
| 299.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 227.0 |
| 7.7 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.6 |
| 2.6 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 12.1% |
| 12.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.252 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.415 |
ECU passing vs APP coverage
| 198.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 160.0 |
| 6.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 57.9% |
| 56.3% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.4 |
| 6.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| -0.336 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.066 |
Efficiency & situational
| 28.6% | Third-down conversion | 0.0% |
| 647.0 | Total yards / game | 162.0 |
| 250.0 | Yards allowed / game | 487.0 |
| +1 | Turnover margin | 0 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.