Vegas Line
Alabama -10.5
Total 49.5
Model Projection
ALA -7.0
ALA 74.6% win · O/U 49.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: UK
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +7.1 pts toward ALA on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- Even
- UK: 9 portal additions / 4 departures, first year under Will Stein — 2021–2025 archive weighted 29%, incoming portal talent +4.6 pts.
- ALA: 8 portal additions / 10 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 43%, incoming portal talent −2.7 pts.
Alabama — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Kentucky ranks #102 nationally allowing 246.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #31 run defense.
2Contain Jason Patterson
Kentucky's top producer this season: 78 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Alabama has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Alabama converts 53.3% of third downs (#40 nationally) versus Kentucky's 37.5%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Alabama is +0 in turnover margin (1 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Kentucky sits at +1.
5Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Alabama on the winning side of an even split.
Kentucky — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Alabama ranks #58 nationally allowing 160.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #3 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Kentucky converts 37.5% of third downs (#91 nationally) versus Alabama's 53.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Kentucky is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Alabama sits at +0.
4Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Kentucky on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Kenny MincheyUK · QB
- Passing Yds
- 301
- Completion %
- 66.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 11.1
- TD : INT
- 4 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 209.2
Leading Rusher
Jason PattersonUK · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 78
- Carries
- 11
- Yards / Carry
- 7.1
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 22
Primary Receiver
Kenny DarbyUK · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 74
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 24.7
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 37
Defensive Leader
Jordan CastellUK · DB
- Tackles
- 7
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 2.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ALA by 7.0
Baseline ALA -7.0
Simulated Total
49.5
Baseline 49.5
Unit Edge
ALA QB
UK Above average · ALA Top 25 level
ALA passing vs UK coverage
| 260.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 246.0 |
| 59.4% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.5 |
| 8.1 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 63.2% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 5.3% |
| 0.299 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.271 |
ALA rushing vs UK run defense
| 227.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 59.0 |
| 4.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 2.1 |
| 3.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 20.8% |
| 12.1% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 5 |
| 0.415 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.062 |
UK passing vs ALA coverage
| 160.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 301.0 |
| 8.4 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 66.7% |
| 57.9% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 11.1 |
| 15.8% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 4.00:1 |
| 0.066 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.828 |
Efficiency & situational
| 53.3% | Third-down conversion | 37.5% |
| 487.0 | Total yards / game | 506.0 |
| 162.0 | Yards allowed / game | 305.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.