Vegas Line
No market line
No total published
Model Projection
TROY -15.0
TROY 90.8% win · O/U 51.4
Value Edge
No market line
No market total to compare
Model Rationale
Preseason baseline: portal composite talent blended with the 2021–2025 archive by roster continuity.
- Phase
- Preseason baseline
- 2026 sample
- 0 games · 0%
- Historical baseline
- 100%
- Baseline margin
- TROY -10.9
Both rosters returned largely intact this cycle, so the 2021–2025 archive keeps its full weight in the preseason baseline.
Alabama State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Troy ranks #124 nationally allowing 335.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #13 run defense.
2Contain Gavin Griffin
Troy's top producer this season: 81 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Alabama State has to take away.
3Protect the turnover edge
Alabama State is +0 in turnover margin (0 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Troy sits at +1.
Troy — Keys to Victory
1Protect the turnover edge
Troy is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Alabama State sits at +0.
2Move the ball efficiently
Troy averages 342.0 total yards per game (#101 nationally). No market total is published for this game yet.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Will CrowderTROY · QB
- Passing Yds
- 165
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 6.9
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 149.0
Leading Rusher
Gavin GriffinTROY · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 81
- Carries
- 16
- Yards / Carry
- 5.1
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 22
Primary Receiver
TK KeyesTROY · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 48
- Receptions
- 2
- Yards / Catch
- 24.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 28
Defensive Leader
Doug NelsonTROY · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
TROY by 14.9
Baseline TROY -15.0
Simulated Total
51.4
Baseline 51.4
Unit Edge
TROY QB
TROY Below average · ALA Below average
ALA passing vs TROY coverage
| 0.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 335.0 |
| 0.0% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 7.3 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 65.2% |
| 0.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 8.7% |
| 0.000 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.310 |
ALA rushing vs TROY run defense
| 0.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 38.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 1.6 |
| 0.0 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 40.0% |
| 0.0% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 13 |
| 0.000 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.186 |
TROY passing vs ALA coverage
| 0.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 165.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 50.0% |
| 0.0% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 6.9 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.000 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.290 |
Efficiency & situational
| — | Third-down conversion | 40.0% |
| 0.0 | Total yards / game | 342.0 |
| 0.0 | Yards allowed / game | 373.0 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.