Week 1 · Final
16 – 38
Vegas Line
Wake Forest -27.5
Total 50.5
Model Projection
WAKE -24.0
WAKE 97.6% win · O/U 50.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: AKR
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +5.2 pts toward WAKE on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- WAKE -4.1
- WAKE: 0 portal additions / 5 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 84%, incoming portal talent −4.3 pts.
Akron — Keys to Victory
1Establish the run
Wake Forest ranks #93 nationally allowing 149.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #56 pass defense.
2Contain Ty Clark III
Wake Forest's top producer this season: 105 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Akron has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Akron converts 46.2% of third downs (#58 nationally) versus Wake Forest's 46.7%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Akron is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Wake Forest sits at +1.
5Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts Akron on the winning side of an even split.
Wake Forest — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Akron ranks #129 nationally allowing 356.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #117 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Wake Forest converts 46.7% of third downs (#57 nationally) versus Akron's 46.2%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Wake Forest is +1 in turnover margin (1 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Akron sits at -1.
4Clear 26 points
The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts Wake Forest on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Giovanni LopezWAKE · QB
- Passing Yds
- 350
- Completion %
- 65.6%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.9
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 188.4
Leading Rusher
Ty Clark IIIWAKE · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 105
- Carries
- 7
- Yards / Carry
- 15.0
- Rushing TD
- 0
- Long
- 57
Primary Receiver
Carlos HernandezWAKE · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 165
- Receptions
- 5
- Yards / Catch
- 33.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 78
Defensive Leader
Frank CusanoWAKE · LB
- Tackles
- 9
- Solo
- 2
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.5
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
WAKE by 24.0
Baseline WAKE -24.0
Simulated Total
50.5
Baseline 50.5
Unit Edge
WAKE QB
WAKE FBS average · AKR Below average
AKR passing vs WAKE coverage
| 156.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 156.0 |
| 84.8% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 4.7 |
| 4.7 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 84.8% |
| 2.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.1% |
| 0.067 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.067 |
AKR rushing vs WAKE run defense
| 149.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 149.0 |
| 4.1 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.1 |
| 2.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 28.6% |
| 28.6% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 7 |
| -0.057 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | -0.057 |
WAKE passing vs AKR coverage
| 356.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 356.0 |
| 10.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 62.9% |
| 62.9% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 10.2 |
| 0.0% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 3.00:1 |
| 0.716 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.716 |
Efficiency & situational
| 46.2% | Third-down conversion | 46.7% |
| 305.0 | Total yards / game | 559.0 |
| 559.0 | Yards allowed / game | 305.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | +1 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.