Week 2 · Final
27 – 9
Vegas Line
Penn State -23.5
Total 49.5
Model Projection
PSU -20.0
PSU 95.6% win · O/U 49.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: TEM
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +3.4 pts toward PSU on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- PSU -10.6
- PSU: 15 portal additions / 12 departures, first year under Matt Campbell — 2021–2025 archive weighted 15%, incoming portal talent +0.8 pts.
Penn State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Temple ranks #72 nationally allowing 195.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #58 run defense.
2Contain Keveun Mason
Temple's top producer this season: 158 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Penn State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Penn State converts 50.0% of third downs (#50 nationally) versus Temple's 25.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Protect the turnover edge
Penn State is +2 in turnover margin (2 forced, 0 lost) across 1 recorded games; Temple sits at +2.
5Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Penn State on the winning side of an even split.
Temple — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Penn State ranks #24 nationally allowing 103.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #17 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Temple converts 25.0% of third downs (#120 nationally) versus Penn State's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Protect the turnover edge
Temple is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Penn State sits at +2.
4Clear 25 points
The market total for this game is 49.5. Anything above 25 points puts Temple on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Ajani SheppardTEM · QB
- Passing Yds
- 85
- Completion %
- 50.0%
- Yards / Attempt
- 8.5
- TD : INT
- 0 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- —
- Passer Rating
- 121.4
Leading Rusher
Keveun MasonTEM · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 158
- Carries
- 20
- Yards / Carry
- 7.9
- Rushing TD
- 2
- Long
- 38
Primary Receiver
Colin ChaseTEM · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 43
- Receptions
- 3
- Yards / Catch
- 14.3
- Receiving TD
- 0
- Long
- 21
Defensive Leader
Curly OrdonezTEM · LB
- Tackles
- 8
- Solo
- 6
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
PSU by 20.0
Baseline PSU -20.0
Simulated Total
49.5
Baseline 49.5
Unit Edge
PSU QB
TEM FBS average · PSU Top 25 level
PSU passing vs TEM coverage
| 324.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 195.0 |
| 74.1% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 6.3 |
| 12.0 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 58.1% |
| 4.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 6.5% |
| 1.403 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | -0.103 |
PSU rushing vs TEM run defense
| 163.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 97.0 |
| 3.6 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 3.2 |
| 3.4 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 33.3% |
| 5.3% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 6 |
| -0.085 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.147 |
TEM passing vs PSU coverage
| 103.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 142.0 |
| 3.7 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 56.3% |
| 67.9% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 8.9 |
| 7.1% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 1.00:1 |
| 0.169 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.306 |
Efficiency & situational
| 50.0% | Third-down conversion | 25.0% |
| 487.0 | Total yards / game | 369.0 |
| 147.0 | Yards allowed / game | 292.0 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | +2 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.