Week 2 · Final
31 – 39
Vegas Line
Oregon -22.5
Total 57.5
Model Projection
ORE -19.0
ORE 94.9% win · O/U 57.5
Value Edge
3.5 pt edge: OKST
Total delta 0.0
Model Rationale
Shifted by +6.3 pts toward ORE on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.
- Phase
- Sample phase
- 2026 sample
- 2 games · 50%
- Historical baseline
- 50%
- Baseline margin
- ORE -1.7
- OKST: 8 portal additions / 5 departures, first year under Eric Morris — 2021–2025 archive weighted 29%, incoming portal talent +3.2 pts.
- ORE: 8 portal additions / 15 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 30%, incoming portal talent −4.5 pts.
Oregon — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Oklahoma State ranks #92 nationally allowing 227.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #81 run defense.
2Stay ahead on third down
Oregon converts 33.3% of third downs (#103 nationally) versus Oklahoma State's 31.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
3Fix the turnover margin
Oregon is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Oklahoma State sits at -3.
4Clear 29 points
The market total for this game is 57.5. Anything above 29 points puts Oregon on the winning side of an even split.
Oklahoma State — Keys to Victory
1Attack through the air
Oregon ranks #65 nationally allowing 181.0 pass yards per game — a softer target than their #56 run defense.
2Contain Jordon Davison
Oregon's top producer this season: 90 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Oklahoma State has to take away.
3Stay ahead on third down
Oklahoma State converts 31.3% of third downs (#109 nationally) versus Oregon's 33.3%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.
4Fix the turnover margin
Oklahoma State is -3 in turnover margin (1 forced, 4 lost) across 1 recorded games; Oregon sits at -1.
5Clear 29 points
The market total for this game is 57.5. Anything above 29 points puts Oklahoma State on the winning side of an even split.
Key Position Matchups
Quarterbacks
Dante MooreORE · QB
- Passing Yds
- 378
- Completion %
- 75.7%
- Yards / Attempt
- 10.2
- TD : INT
- 3 : 0
- TD/INT Ratio
- No INTs
- Passer Rating
- 188.2
Leading Rusher
Jordon DavisonORE · RB
- Rushing Yds
- 90
- Carries
- 12
- Yards / Carry
- 7.5
- Rushing TD
- 1
- Long
- 40
Primary Receiver
Jeremiah McClellanORE · WR
- Receiving Yds
- 150
- Receptions
- 6
- Yards / Catch
- 25.0
- Receiving TD
- 1
- Long
- 51
Defensive Leader
Koi PerichORE · DB
- Tackles
- 11
- Solo
- 3
- Sacks
- 0.0
- TFL
- 0.0
- INT
- 0
Matchup Simulator
Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.
Simulated Winner
ORE by 19.0
Baseline ORE -19.0
Simulated Total
57.5
Baseline 57.5
Unit Edge
ORE QB
OKST FBS average · ORE Above average
ORE passing vs OKST coverage
| 378.0 | Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G | 227.0 |
| 73.7% | Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed | 9.5 |
| 9.9 | Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed | 70.8% |
| 3.00:1 | TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate | 0.0% |
| 0.349 | EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass | 0.443 |
ORE rushing vs OKST run defense
| 119.0 | Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G | 134.0 |
| 4.8 | Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed | 4.1 |
| 3.2 | Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate | 15.2% |
| 12.5% | Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss | 4 |
| 0.202 | EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush | 0.038 |
OKST passing vs ORE coverage
| 181.0 | Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG | 241.0 |
| 6.2 | Yards / Target allowed vs Completion % | 59.2% |
| 51.7% | Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt | 4.9 |
| 10.3% | Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio | 0.50:1 |
| 0.291 | Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass | 0.151 |
Efficiency & situational
| 33.3% | Third-down conversion | 31.3% |
| 497.0 | Total yards / game | 368.0 |
| 274.0 | Yards allowed / game | 361.0 |
| -1 | Turnover margin | -3 |
Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.