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360
Arizona State logo

Away · #45

Arizona State

1-1 · Big 12 · 20 pts

Week 2 · Final

20 – 48

Texas A&M logo

Home · #5

Texas A&M

2-0 · SEC · 48 pts

Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 AM MT Kyle Field ABC

Vegas Line

Texas A&M -14.5

Total 50.5

Model Projection

TA&M -12.5

TA&M 87.4% win · O/U 50.5

Value Edge

1.9 pt edge: ASU

Total delta 0.0

Model Rationale

Shifted by +4.6 pts toward TA&M on the 2026 2-game sample vs. the historical baseline.

Phase
Sample phase
2026 sample
2 games · 50%
Historical baseline
50%
Baseline margin
TA&M -4.0
  • TA&M: 8 portal additions / 3 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 65%, incoming portal talent +4.3 pts.
  • ASU: 6 portal additions / 2 departures — 2021–2025 archive weighted 75%, incoming portal talent +2.6 pts.
Arizona State logo

Arizona State — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Establish the run

    Texas A&M ranks #12 nationally allowing 37.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #3 pass defense.

  2. 2Contain Rueben Owens

    Texas A&M's top producer this season: 77 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Arizona State has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Arizona State converts 50.0% of third downs (#44 nationally) versus Texas A&M's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Fix the turnover margin

    Arizona State is -1 in turnover margin (0 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Texas A&M sits at +2.

  5. 5Clear 26 points

    The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts Arizona State on the winning side of an even split.

Texas A&M logo

Texas A&M — Keys to Victory

  1. 1Establish the run

    Arizona State ranks #62 nationally allowing 102.0 rush yards per game — softer than their #12 pass defense.

  2. 2Contain Kyson Brown

    Arizona State's top producer this season: 80 rushing yards (RB). Their production line is the first thing Texas A&M has to take away.

  3. 3Stay ahead on third down

    Texas A&M converts 50.0% of third downs (#52 nationally) versus Arizona State's 50.0%. Sustaining drives is the cleanest edge on the board.

  4. 4Protect the turnover edge

    Texas A&M is +2 in turnover margin (3 forced, 1 lost) across 1 recorded games; Arizona State sits at -1.

  5. 5Clear 26 points

    The market total for this game is 50.5. Anything above 26 points puts Texas A&M on the winning side of an even split.

Key Position Matchups

Quarterbacks

Cutter BoleyASU · QB

Passing Yds
387
Completion %
77.8%
Yards / Attempt
14.3
TD : INT
6 : 0
TD/INT Ratio
No INTs
Passer Rating
271.5

Marcel ReedTA&M · QB

Passing Yds
233
Completion %
70.0%
Yards / Attempt
7.8
TD : INT
2 : 0
TD/INT Ratio
No INTs
Passer Rating
157.2

Leading Rusher

Kyson BrownASU · RB

Rushing Yds
80
Carries
6
Yards / Carry
13.3
Rushing TD
1
Long
46

Rueben OwensTA&M · RB

Rushing Yds
77
Carries
17
Yards / Carry
4.5
Rushing TD
0
Long
15

Primary Receiver

Reed HarrisASU · WR

Receiving Yds
137
Receptions
6
Yards / Catch
22.8
Receiving TD
2
Long
36

Isaiah HortonTA&M · WR

Receiving Yds
76
Receptions
4
Yards / Catch
19.0
Receiving TD
1
Long
36

Defensive Leader

Ben Alefaio-LiliiASU · S

Tackles
5
Solo
3
Sacks
0.0
TFL
0.0
INT
0

Noah MikhailTA&M · LB

Tackles
7
Solo
2
Sacks
0.0
TFL
0.0
INT
0

Matchup Simulator

Starts from the CFB 360 projection for this exact game. Turnover swings are valued at 4.2 points each; pace scales the projected total against a 140-play baseline.

Simulated Winner

TA&M by 12.6

Baseline TA&M -12.5

Simulated Total

50.5

Baseline 50.5

Unit Edge

TA&M QB

TA&M Above average · ASU Above average

Open the full simulator

ASU passing vs TA&M coverage

432.0Passing YPG vs Pass yards allowed / G30.0
72.2%Completion % vs Yards / Target allowed1.8
12.0Yards / Attempt vs Completion % allowed47.1%
6.00:1TD / INT ratio vs Sack / pressure rate5.9%
1.125EPA / Pass vs Defensive EPA / Pass-0.197

ASU rushing vs TA&M run defense

249.0Rushing YPG vs Rush yards allowed / G37.0
7.1Yards / Carry vs Yards / Carry allowed1.6
3.7Line yards (post-contact proxy) vs Stuff rate25.0%
17.6%Stuffed-run rate vs Tackles for loss6
0.533EPA / Rush vs Defensive EPA / Rush-0.375

TA&M passing vs ASU coverage

86.0Pass yards allowed / G vs Passing YPG269.0
3.6Yards / Target allowed vs Completion %65.8%
45.8%Completion % allowed vs Yards / Attempt7.1
8.3%Sack / pressure rate vs TD / INT ratio3.00:1
-0.133Defensive EPA / Pass vs EPA / Pass0.450

Efficiency & situational

50.0%Third-down conversion50.0%
681.0Total yards / game505.0
188.0Yards allowed / game67.0
-1Turnover margin+2

Red-zone efficiency is not published in the official feed yet, so it is left out rather than estimated.